A very strong El Niño is now under way, and drought is spreading across the Philippines. CARE Philippines’ Situation and Action Report shows where conditions are worsening, who is most exposed, and what government, donors, and partners can do before impacts peak in February and March 2027.

What the report finds

• Drought is spreading. PAGASA expects drought by the end of November in provinces including Albay, Catanduanes, Negros Oriental, and Samar, and 85 provinces and areas in rainfall deficit by end-January 2027. The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reports 191,616 families (490,795 people) affected in six regions as of 10 November.
• Farms are already losing. The Department of Agriculture (DA) records PHP 8.57 billion in damage, affecting 288,058 farmers, as of 21 October 2026.
• Water will run short. PAGASA forecasts February inflows at 1.5% of normal at La Mesa, Metro Manila’s terminal reservoir, and 2.0% at Magat, which irrigates Cagayan Valley.
• Women carry much of the change. In CARE’s 2024 Rapid Gender Analysis, some women started field work at 3–4 AM to avoid the heat. Women decided on food and alternative income, so their income shapes how households cope.

Eastern seaboard: typhoon-ready communities now face a long drought

Provinces along the eastern seaboard, from Bicol and Quirino to Samar and Leyte, normally have no dry season. Communities there prepare for typhoons and farm with the rain of the December–February northeast monsoon, which this El Niño is cutting.

All 15 eastern seaboard provinces assessed are already in rainfall deficit. PAGASA forecasts them to spend an average of 4.1 months in drought, against 2.6 and 1.3 months in other climate zones. Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Quirino, Eastern Samar, Leyte, and Samar face drought from October to March, the longest stretch in the country.

Because long dry periods are rare here, farms may have fewer water-storage practices and drought planting calendars to rely on. Typhoons can still strike, and a storm on dry ground brings flooding without refilling water sources. Support needs to work for both hazards: water facilities built to withstand storms, and cash that can shift between drought and typhoon response.

In Catanduanes, CARE Philippines is helping women-led enterprises add climate-risk measures to their business plans, and is developing a water security project with communities there and on Negros Island.

What needs to happen now

Anticipatory action works best before the end of November. The report calls for:

1. Cash and safe water for households in provinces already in drought. On the eastern seaboard, water facilities sited and built to withstand typhoons, and cash that can shift between drought and storm response.
2. Water storage, boreholes, and drought-tolerant seed in Mindanao, decided by mid-November and delivered by about 30 November.
3. Livelihood protection before families sell assets or take on debt.
4. Heat-health messaging and school water supply from December to April.
5. Women in decisions on who receives support, where water points sit, and who leads water committees.

What CARE Philippines is doing

CARE Philippines leads the ACCESS Consortium of 14 organisations, which is activating its drought and El Niño anticipatory action protocol. It is also adapting projects in Batangas, Bohol, Catanduanes, Palawan, Rizal, and Surigao del Norte to help communities and women-led enterprises prepare.

Download full report: care-philippines.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CARE-El-Nino-Report.pdf

Partner with us to reach communities before the peak. Contact us: carephl.info@care.org