A strong to very strong El Niño is under way, and drought has already reached seven provinces. CARE Philippines’ new Situation and Action Report sets out what the forecasts show, who is most exposed, and what government, humanitarian partners, and donors can do before the driest months of February and March 2027.

The report draws on forecasts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), government impact data, and CARE’s own gender analysis from the 2024 El Niño.

Key findings

• Drought is here and spreading. PAGASA’s latest monitor lists 41 provinces and areas in rainfall deficit. Seven are in drought: Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Negros Oriental, Samar, and Siquijor. PAGASA forecasts way-below-normal rainfall in every province by February 2027.
• Losses are already high. The Department of Agriculture recorded PHP 6.87 billion in crop damage across 14 regions as of 26 September. That is about 45% of the final total for the whole 2023–24 El Niño, recorded months before the forecast peak.
• Many communities start with less to fall back on. The 2026 monsoon and four tropical cyclones affected 2.78 million families. Six of the regions hit are now forecast to go into drought.
• Water supply will drop sharply. By February, inflows are forecast at 2.0% of normal at Magat Dam and 5.5% at Pantabangan Dam, which irrigate major rice-growing areas. Mindanao river basins are forecast to fall to 8–26% of normal flow.
• Drought changes who works, who earns, and who decides. In CARE’s 2024 Rapid Gender Analysis in Kalinga and Negros Oriental, women kept their household and care work while also working in the fields, some starting at 3 or 4 a.m. to avoid the heat. Men decided on rice fields, and women decided on food and alternative income.
• The time to act varies by region. Provinces already in drought need cash and safe water now. In Mindanao, communities have until about 30 November to build water storage, develop boreholes, and plant drought-tolerant seed.

What CARE Philippines is doing

CARE Philippines leads the ACCESS Consortium, a group of 14 humanitarian organizations funded by European Union humanitarian aid. The consortium is activating its drought and El Niño protocol, which links preparedness, early action, and response to PAGASA forecasts. CARE is also developing AQUA, a proposed water security project for Catanduanes and Negros Island.

Ongoing CARE projects are adding drought measures for the households and enterprises they already serve. In Palawan, women lead community risk planning that now includes El Niño. In Catanduanes, collective enterprises are building climate risks into their business plans, with women taking part in planning. Other projects in Batangas, Bohol, Rizal, and Surigao del Norte are adapting too.

Across this work, CARE consults women on who receives support and where water points go, supports women’s leadership on water and enterprise committees, and reports results by sex, age, and disability.

Read the full report

The report includes regional exposure profiles, sector-by-sector needs, a timeline for anticipatory action, and priority actions for government, humanitarian partners, and donors.